This is a report of IEA about global energy supply and demand in future. It was presented in the face of financial crisis and incremental price of energy in 2007-2008.
The report says, the current energy system is at a crossroads. The risk is lack of investment rather than resources. Urgent action is necessary but key is governmental action to make financial incentive for efficient and low carbon energy and reduction of subsidy of energy consumption.
About future demand and supply, demand will increase 45% from 2006 to 2030. in the supply, fossil fuels account for 80% of energy mix but the share will decrease compared with increase of coal and renewable resource. In the consumption, China and India account just over half of the increase in world primary energy demand.
About investment, over half of investment is for maintaining current level of supply because most of infrastructure is needed to replace by 2030. Most incremental oil will come from OPEC but appropriate investment is necessary.
Surprisingly, oil reserve is enough for 40 years, but the resources are concentrated in small region. And gas is Russia, Iran and Middle East is 56% of the world.
However, decline in oil production is accelerating field-by-field. To combat the decline and offset falling production, large investment must be done. In this process, partnerships between MNCs and national companies are important.
On the other hand, Oil-rich countries have a lot of poverty. If they spend 0.4% of oil and gas revenue for minimal energy service, they can access enough energy.
Most difficult problem is to deal with climate change. In the reference scenario, world average temperature increase to 6c in the end of the century. Three-quarters of projected increase in energy related CO2 emissions in reference scenario arises in China, India and Middle East. Only Europe and Japan are emissions in 2030 lower than today.
To overcome this situation, any strong action must be done.
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